Applied Conjectures

Applied Conjectures

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Galaxy Digital: Show Me The Money
Why CapEx per MW, financing terms / mix, group-level profitability, and execution assumptions are likely materially worse than expected
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LG
Chongqing Machinery & Electric: Things Are Not What They Seem
Chinese AI datacenter CapEx beneficiary hidden in an inefficient industrial equipment SOE
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LG
1
TSMC: And Then There Was One
Why out-year AI CapEx projections are likely too low, and why Intel is unlikely to disrupt the TSMC monopoly
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LG
4
Lenovo: Not Your Father's PC Company Anymore
Why Lenovo could be a decent trade as the market is myopically focused on PC shipments, overlooking services profitability and servers inflection
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LG
3
Music Is (Getting Less) Universal
Why margin expansion at the major music labels has largely disappointed, and why this is likely to continue
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LG
1
How Long Do GPUs Last Anyway? A Look Into Hyperscalers' Depreciation Policies, GPUaaS Unit Economics
Why skeptics of the hyperscalers’ depreciation policies are likely wrong, and why GPUaaS unit economics are quite attractive even for legacy GPUs
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LG
The Death of Google Search Is Greatly Exaggerated, Probably
Why Search is probably losing less market share than feared, and why replicating an ad platform is no mean feat
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LG
Applied Conjectures
Applied Conjectures
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