Not a needle-mover. Anson got two directors and probably will get board declassification passed. Even if MG gets sold, it doesn't materially change long-term prospects. Elliott and Starboard has been here for awhile too. Don't think the typical shareholder activist cure-alls of capital allocation and corporate governance changes is what's required right now. Product innovation that reaccelerates downloads and provides greater value to justify higher monetization is what matters for now.
Interesting. Yea, I saw that Elliot and Starboard got in early and nothing really came out of it. The declining downloads is definitely a material fundamental deterioration that can't be danced around. Do you think it's a good short at this price? I have a feeling that it will get taken private by big PE sooner or later
I don't think its a good long, but I don't have a strong opinion on whether its a good short. I think with shorts you want a near-term catalyst in most circumstances, which as you point out is likely to be not a good one on the short side. Ideally, I'd want the company to lever up even more now and buy back shares (maybe to fight off activists?) to the point where they are unattractive to PE (due to the debt) and where the range of outcomes would have compressed significantly to the downside, such that it becomes an attractive terminal short with declining revenues and a highly levered balance sheet.
Good write-up. Have you been following Anson Fund's campaign against Match? Wondering if you think the company could benefit from a board refresh.
Not a needle-mover. Anson got two directors and probably will get board declassification passed. Even if MG gets sold, it doesn't materially change long-term prospects. Elliott and Starboard has been here for awhile too. Don't think the typical shareholder activist cure-alls of capital allocation and corporate governance changes is what's required right now. Product innovation that reaccelerates downloads and provides greater value to justify higher monetization is what matters for now.
Interesting. Yea, I saw that Elliot and Starboard got in early and nothing really came out of it. The declining downloads is definitely a material fundamental deterioration that can't be danced around. Do you think it's a good short at this price? I have a feeling that it will get taken private by big PE sooner or later
I don't think its a good long, but I don't have a strong opinion on whether its a good short. I think with shorts you want a near-term catalyst in most circumstances, which as you point out is likely to be not a good one on the short side. Ideally, I'd want the company to lever up even more now and buy back shares (maybe to fight off activists?) to the point where they are unattractive to PE (due to the debt) and where the range of outcomes would have compressed significantly to the downside, such that it becomes an attractive terminal short with declining revenues and a highly levered balance sheet.